Stuck in Hialeah is now...
As the year changes, so will my blogging frequency, I promise! There's gonna be a whole lot more blogging than you've seen here lately, so please stay tuned for more and make sure to update your bookmarks ;D
~Abel I.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Special Comment: Evelyn Greer
Dear, dear Evelyn. This is perhaps the last time I will write about you.And what a happy time it is.
You see, around 10AM this very day, Dr. Larry Feldman will be sworn in as the School Board member representing District 9 in southern Miami-Dade.
For the past four years, Ms. Greer, you have been the Karl Rove to Crew's Bush. Despite your "business expertise" and apparent success as mayor of Pinecrest, you could not bring yourself to bring good to this school district which needed it so much.
In a time of economic hardship and budget problems, you, more than anyone else, advocated and voted for, time after time after time, for the eliminations of the jobs of your employees, your constituents, and your supporters. You, Ms. Greer, have been nothing more than Rudy Crew's attack dog, barking "Shame on you" to supporters and dissenters. You, Ms. Greer, have furthered your wealth through dirty deals with the district and yet given nothing in return. You, Ms. Greer, have made worse the worst situation possible.
It will be thoroughly refreshing to have you off the Board and replaced by a voice of resounding positivity.
I will never forget the embarrassment of defending what you thought was Crew's stance against Secondary School Reform, personally emailing me and warning me of a challenge at the School Board meeting, only to then find out that he, too, supported the program. Was your undying support really that blinding?
Perhaps so. And perhaps the stories of you manipulating Board members are true. And certainly we have all, time and time again, seen you live and on TV lying to the public. Not fibbing, not sugarcoating, but blatantly lying to the public and warping information to fit your own agenda and confuse dissenters.
Just as Change has come to Washington, Change has come to the School Board.
I do not know the type of leader that Dr. Feldman will be, but if it anything like his history shows, the next four years will be a happier four years. It will be a time, hopefully, of openness, honesty, and a Board member who truly shows respect to his District rather than using them to manuever oneself politically and believe, in a futile manner, that simply having money will get you everywhere. In at least one part of Miami-Dade County, voters made the right choice last August.
Goodbye, Ms. Greer. And, in the simple words of a certain board member, "Good luck."
Here we go again.
You know it South Florida, it's that time of the month again.
No, not that time of the month. Tomorrow (or later today, rather) is the monthy School Board meeting, sure to bring entertainment to tens of thousands of South Floridians. And while the media has been focused on Obama's transition and, for some reason, post-election Sarah Palin's crusade to...stay in the spotlight, I suppose, Miami-Dade County Public Schools has not ceased to keep changing day after day, week after week.
Last week, Deputy Superintendent Ofelia San Pedro, responsible in part for the disastrously-handled budget this summer, offered her resignation. Former MDCPS CFO Richard Hinds has been named a likely successor.
The District has also sent out a survey to teachers to develop a study regarding a possible switch to the four-day work week. I admit, it looks good at first. But it could potentially mean taking a financial burden off of MDCPS and placing it on parents who have to make arrangements that may not be so easy to make under the economic circumstances. There's also the matter of instructional time. Let's be honest, students have trouble enough trying to pay attention for six hours, let alone seven, eight, or more and what of the younger ones in elementary schools? Will they also be subject to this? Bad idea.
As for tomorrow, the budget's back on the table with item A-3. The long, difficult battle to 'balance' the budget this summer apparently isn't over. With Tallahassee and Gov. Crist warning school districts to prepare for more cuts, coupled with the same financial mismanagement we saw earlier in the year, Miami-Dade is falling deeper in the whole. How much deeper? Anywhere from $100 to more than $150 million.
There is a small, tiny glimmer of hope however. While many more union and instructional positions are set to be eliminated, there will be a salary cut for the highest earners in the District across the Board. The Herald reports the pay cuts being at 10%. This will in no way solve all of our problems, nor get us even close, but it shows a willingness on Superintendent Carvalho's part to work with the Board as a whole and in a (semi) fair manner to bring the situation to resolution, which is more than we ever got out of Crew and his Cronies.
Unfortunately, one has to begin asking himself, with the situation as it is, is it really possible, at least feasible, to close the budget gap without firing people? Yes, fire the ones at the top. The ones that gotta go. The list of those making over $100k has increased from 200 two years ago to 400 last year and over 550 this year.
The sad part is that the Administration and the Board continues to work in a manner that is not innovative or creative in regards to saving money. Maybe if they got serious about idling buses, 'greenifying' schools, turning the switches to 'Off', dropping the water bottles, and other small, but helpful, ideas they'd find that big savings can come from them. I still remember the day Dr. Perez held a conference with the public to discuss ways to raise revenue and save money- a meeting where very, very good ideas were talked about, and a meeting that was completely ignored, as though it never happened.
On another note, the Agenda also includes item E-200, the final reading of an amended rule which seeks to ban blogging from within the school district and discourage blogging that may discredit it. The actual wording is as follows (emphasis added by me):
At last months meeting, I spoke out against this on a First Amendment basis, because it truly is an obstacle in the way of free speech. Rather than embrace the 21st century and use blogging to its advantage, as an educational tool that can bring news and topics of interest to students and a means of expressing themselves and practicing writing, the school District chooses, as usual, to shun technology and avoid listening to reason.
In doing so, they seem to cross a few fine lines, in my honest opinion. It's understandable enough that an employee should not be blogging during work hours, but what is it with the prohibition of blogging on "District equipment". Last I checked, those computers are fully funded by the tax dollars of the SAME hard-working teachers, librarians, IT specialists, and other employees who work for MDCPS. And if that is not enough, this new rule sends a friendly reminder to those out there who might post something damaging to the District (as if enough of that isn't already going on) by reminding employees that they are ALWAYS representative of MDCPS. By that logic, and based upon discussions at the meeting, I, as a student, am included in this and I, as a student of a school belonging to Miami-Dade, am always representative of the school District. That's a shame, because I can't be doing them good at all. And I also won't be clarifying for anyone what my opinion is and what the District's opinion is. Frankly, it's not my job to do so nor any employees, as the content on their blogs is fully their's to control, excepting special cases wherein a blog may be intentionally deceptive. But again, that's a special case.
On a final note, what happened to Fair Use? Correct me if I'm wrong, and perhaps I am, but MDCPS is an arm of the Florida (and to an extent United States) government. Is it not my privilege then to be able to use District logos and images in a fair manner that is not meant to deceive others?
Evilyn Greer (misspelling intentional, perhaps?) had to put in her last two cents to me as a Board member with the following, and as bitter as ever:
Fortunately, we have Board members such as Ana Rivas Logan who apply actual thought to the situations at hand and commented that:
Unfortunately, while this battle is technically 'To be Continued', it's soon to be a small loss for the blogging community.
---------
Aside from the meeting that is taking place, I've also received notice of this simultaneous event from a participant [Neither I, nor my blog, is endorsing nor furthering the assertions made below; The only purpose of this is to provide relevant information] :
Interestingly, former candidate for School Board, District 3 Shawn Beightol, whom I worked with closely this past summer on his campaign, is part of this press conference, as well as two other School Board regulars.
Ah. Our school system never ceases to entertain. Let's see how this plays out.
Stay tuned, SoFla.
No, not that time of the month. Tomorrow (or later today, rather) is the monthy School Board meeting, sure to bring entertainment to tens of thousands of South Floridians. And while the media has been focused on Obama's transition and, for some reason, post-election Sarah Palin's crusade to...stay in the spotlight, I suppose, Miami-Dade County Public Schools has not ceased to keep changing day after day, week after week.
Last week, Deputy Superintendent Ofelia San Pedro, responsible in part for the disastrously-handled budget this summer, offered her resignation. Former MDCPS CFO Richard Hinds has been named a likely successor.
The District has also sent out a survey to teachers to develop a study regarding a possible switch to the four-day work week. I admit, it looks good at first. But it could potentially mean taking a financial burden off of MDCPS and placing it on parents who have to make arrangements that may not be so easy to make under the economic circumstances. There's also the matter of instructional time. Let's be honest, students have trouble enough trying to pay attention for six hours, let alone seven, eight, or more and what of the younger ones in elementary schools? Will they also be subject to this? Bad idea.
As for tomorrow, the budget's back on the table with item A-3. The long, difficult battle to 'balance' the budget this summer apparently isn't over. With Tallahassee and Gov. Crist warning school districts to prepare for more cuts, coupled with the same financial mismanagement we saw earlier in the year, Miami-Dade is falling deeper in the whole. How much deeper? Anywhere from $100 to more than $150 million.
There is a small, tiny glimmer of hope however. While many more union and instructional positions are set to be eliminated, there will be a salary cut for the highest earners in the District across the Board. The Herald reports the pay cuts being at 10%. This will in no way solve all of our problems, nor get us even close, but it shows a willingness on Superintendent Carvalho's part to work with the Board as a whole and in a (semi) fair manner to bring the situation to resolution, which is more than we ever got out of Crew and his Cronies.
Unfortunately, one has to begin asking himself, with the situation as it is, is it really possible, at least feasible, to close the budget gap without firing people? Yes, fire the ones at the top. The ones that gotta go. The list of those making over $100k has increased from 200 two years ago to 400 last year and over 550 this year.
The sad part is that the Administration and the Board continues to work in a manner that is not innovative or creative in regards to saving money. Maybe if they got serious about idling buses, 'greenifying' schools, turning the switches to 'Off', dropping the water bottles, and other small, but helpful, ideas they'd find that big savings can come from them. I still remember the day Dr. Perez held a conference with the public to discuss ways to raise revenue and save money- a meeting where very, very good ideas were talked about, and a meeting that was completely ignored, as though it never happened.
On another note, the Agenda also includes item E-200, the final reading of an amended rule which seeks to ban blogging from within the school district and discourage blogging that may discredit it. The actual wording is as follows (emphasis added by me):
6Gx13-6A-1.112
Instruction- Elementary and Secondary
ACCEPTABLE USE POLICY FOR THE NETWORK
VIII. Procedures for Use
C. Blogging is the activity of writing entries in, adding material to, or maintaining a "weblog." Employees are not to engage in blogging activities during working hours or by using district-owned equipment unless are specifically required to perform the employees' responsibilities and duties. District users are reminded that during non-working hours they are representatives of M-DCPS and should behave in a manner that does not bring disrespect or discredit the education profession. Unless engaging an officially sanctioned District activity, employees using "blogs" should clearly specify that any opinions or statements are the employee's and do not reflect the views of the District. Employees are prohibited from using officially sanctioned school district logos, school mascots, and other official symbols.
At last months meeting, I spoke out against this on a First Amendment basis, because it truly is an obstacle in the way of free speech. Rather than embrace the 21st century and use blogging to its advantage, as an educational tool that can bring news and topics of interest to students and a means of expressing themselves and practicing writing, the school District chooses, as usual, to shun technology and avoid listening to reason.
In doing so, they seem to cross a few fine lines, in my honest opinion. It's understandable enough that an employee should not be blogging during work hours, but what is it with the prohibition of blogging on "District equipment". Last I checked, those computers are fully funded by the tax dollars of the SAME hard-working teachers, librarians, IT specialists, and other employees who work for MDCPS. And if that is not enough, this new rule sends a friendly reminder to those out there who might post something damaging to the District (as if enough of that isn't already going on) by reminding employees that they are ALWAYS representative of MDCPS. By that logic, and based upon discussions at the meeting, I, as a student, am included in this and I, as a student of a school belonging to Miami-Dade, am always representative of the school District. That's a shame, because I can't be doing them good at all. And I also won't be clarifying for anyone what my opinion is and what the District's opinion is. Frankly, it's not my job to do so nor any employees, as the content on their blogs is fully their's to control, excepting special cases wherein a blog may be intentionally deceptive. But again, that's a special case.
On a final note, what happened to Fair Use? Correct me if I'm wrong, and perhaps I am, but MDCPS is an arm of the Florida (and to an extent United States) government. Is it not my privilege then to be able to use District logos and images in a fair manner that is not meant to deceive others?
Evilyn Greer (misspelling intentional, perhaps?) had to put in her last two cents to me as a Board member with the following, and as bitter as ever:
"He [me] in fact does not have the First Amendment right to blog [from anywhere within school]."
Fortunately, we have Board members such as Ana Rivas Logan who apply actual thought to the situations at hand and commented that:
"If someone says something that frankly we disagree with, that is their First Amendment right."
Unfortunately, while this battle is technically 'To be Continued', it's soon to be a small loss for the blogging community.
---------
Aside from the meeting that is taking place, I've also received notice of this simultaneous event from a participant [Neither I, nor my blog, is endorsing nor furthering the assertions made below; The only purpose of this is to provide relevant information] :
Interestingly, former candidate for School Board, District 3 Shawn Beightol, whom I worked with closely this past summer on his campaign, is part of this press conference, as well as two other School Board regulars.
***** Press Release 18 November 2008 at 5:30 PM*****
We are calling a press conference outside on the steps of the Miami-Dade County School Board Auditorium at 5:30 PM on November 18th.
1.) This press conference is being called to expose Alberto Carvalho's deception with the media regarding the MDCPS budget for 2008-2009. Carvalho's secret agreements with the United Teachers of Dade have allowed for him to be appointed in violation of the contract, which requires all the unions to have a role in the selection process. Carvalho has created a surplus by raising taxes through the board, yet has refused to honor the employees' contractual raises. This is even after the school board approved the funding far beyond what is required to implement those raises.
2.) The United Teachers of Dade's leadership is pursuing charges against their only voice of opposition. Three high-profile stewards have been brought up on false charges in violation of the
organization's own By-Laws, in order to suppress the facts. This is being done because the UTD has chosen to support the superintendent over their bargaining unit, to remove all conflicting points of view within UTD, and to take revenge on the individuals who rallied the employees to reject Karen Aronowitz's plan for the employees to pay for their own health care.
With the teachers union working for Carvalho, what options are left for the employees who may need assistance with the day-to-day problems that occur? Please join us and help us tell the true story about what is really happening.
Rory Robinson
Executive Board Member Miami Educators Alliance
Illegally Suspended Designated Steward United Teachers of Dade
Ronald Beasley
Only elected President Spotlight Caucus
Executive Board Member Miami Educators Alliance
Illegally Suspended Designated Steward United Teachers of Dade
Shawn Beightol
President Miami Professional Educators Alliance
Executive Board Member Miami Educators Alliance
Illegally Suspended Designated Steward United Teachers of Dade
Ah. Our school system never ceases to entertain. Let's see how this plays out.
Stay tuned, SoFla.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
A Democrat and a Dream Fulfilled
For most of my mature life, most of what I have known is Republican rule and, for just less than half of my life, what it is like to live in a country at war. I've seen our economy go down the gutter, I've seen education degrade first-hand, and I've seen a government with the most mistaken placement of its priorities.
And, apparently, so has the rest of the country.
There is so much more meaning to what has happened tonight other than the fact we have just elected an African-American as president for the first time, when just 150 years ago we had them enslaved. It's a feat that no doubt will go down in the next history books published.
I'm left simply speechless. Speechless about the fact that when I am old, and when I have grandchildren, I can tell them I saw him. I saw President Obama speak and inspire people of every race, ethnicity, sex, and walk of life right by Miami's bay. Whether or not he is a good president, he is a historic figure; one to be remembered for ages. And I was here when it happened, and I helped it happen.
This is it. The culmination of a country coming together for the common good. Donating their time, of which they have little, donating their money, of which they have less, all to elect one man to the presidency. Few times in American history have Americans stood so solidly together.
Tonight, I am proud to be an American moreso than any other night in my life because I have seen the power of democracy, the power of people to bring change to a nation, and the collective will of America to progress past a time of racism and prejudices.
'Historic' is an understatement.
This is a realigning election that will last a great many years. With the Dems poised to win at least 57 seats and a very possible 58 or 59, as well as maybe even 25-30 or more seats in the House, we will have major, fundamental change coming. The night may yet yield many surprises, and I sense a Democratic wave sweeping the country,
I'm gone, for I am speechless.
And, apparently, so has the rest of the country.
There is so much more meaning to what has happened tonight other than the fact we have just elected an African-American as president for the first time, when just 150 years ago we had them enslaved. It's a feat that no doubt will go down in the next history books published.
I'm left simply speechless. Speechless about the fact that when I am old, and when I have grandchildren, I can tell them I saw him. I saw President Obama speak and inspire people of every race, ethnicity, sex, and walk of life right by Miami's bay. Whether or not he is a good president, he is a historic figure; one to be remembered for ages. And I was here when it happened, and I helped it happen.
This is it. The culmination of a country coming together for the common good. Donating their time, of which they have little, donating their money, of which they have less, all to elect one man to the presidency. Few times in American history have Americans stood so solidly together.
Tonight, I am proud to be an American moreso than any other night in my life because I have seen the power of democracy, the power of people to bring change to a nation, and the collective will of America to progress past a time of racism and prejudices.
'Historic' is an understatement.
This is a realigning election that will last a great many years. With the Dems poised to win at least 57 seats and a very possible 58 or 59, as well as maybe even 25-30 or more seats in the House, we will have major, fundamental change coming. The night may yet yield many surprises, and I sense a Democratic wave sweeping the country,
I'm gone, for I am speechless.
Obama Takes the Cake
I'm going out on a limb and making a projection.
New England, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, DC, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Washington, Delaware, Hawaii, California, Oregon, and North Carolina = 274
The Rest including all the other swing states including Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc = 264
If Obama wins either Virginia OR North Carolina and loses all the other swing states, it becomes impossible for John McCain to win this election.
In other words, either John McCain wins EVERY battleground plus Virginia and North Carolina, or it's over for him. Sounds pretty impossible.
The election is Barack Obama's. You heard it here first.
Now it's just a matter of how big a landslide this will be.
New England, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, DC, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Washington, Delaware, Hawaii, California, Oregon, and North Carolina = 274
The Rest including all the other swing states including Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc = 264
If Obama wins either Virginia OR North Carolina and loses all the other swing states, it becomes impossible for John McCain to win this election.
In other words, either John McCain wins EVERY battleground plus Virginia and North Carolina, or it's over for him. Sounds pretty impossible.
The election is Barack Obama's. You heard it here first.
Now it's just a matter of how big a landslide this will be.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Gearing up for a Re-Alignment, Pt. 2
With an Obama presidency very likely, he'll need all the support he can get in passing his initiatives. For this, we are very fortunate to be looking at a good number of pickups in the Senate.
Let's look at the important races this year that could mean the tipping point of power:
Pickup 1/9
Alaska-
Convicted felon Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens (R) vs. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D)
Post conviction polls show Begich leading over Stevens by as little as 49-42 to as much as 58-36
This race is, for the most part, over.
--
Pickup 2/9
Colorado-
Congressman Mark Udall (D) vs. Congressman Bob Schaffer (R)
Recent polls suggest a Democratic lead of 56-41 and 53-43 as recently as late October (as in October 29-30). Should there be a big turnout in favor of Obama and a last-minute swing to the Democratis, I believe that Udall could very well hit 60% or something very close. The reality, however, is that this seat is already ours.
--
Pickup 3/9
New Hampshire-
Incumbent Senator John Sununu (R) vs. former Governor of N.H. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Shaheen won three decisive gubernatorial races and currently leads Sununu by about 52-44. Recent surveys have shown some tightening, but incumbents don't often recover from those numbers, especially not the day before an election.
--
Pickup 4/9
Oregon-
Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith (R) vs. Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley (D)
Merkley is polling over 50%, and that's a deadly number for an incumbent's opponent to be at. Smith can't come back from this one. Here's some trivia: Smith is a cousin to Mark Udall, the candidate for Colorado up there, and Tom Udall, candidate for...
--
Pickup 5/9
New Mexico-
Congressman Tom Udall (D) vs. Congressman Steve Pearce
Another safe Dem seat, and the second Udall that's about to serve us in the US Senate. Udall's been up since October of last year and never once gone under 50% support.
--
Pickup 6/9
Virginia-
Former Governor Mark Warner (D) vs. Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R)
Since January Warner has polled at least 55% or higher and Gilmore at most about 35% or lower.
--
And those are the six 'easy' seats. With these, as well as Bernie Sanders and, unfortunately, Joe Lieberman, the Dems would hold a 57-seat majority in the Senate- three short from the 60 needed for a filibuster-proof majority. Now, I'll be honest with you. There are some Republican I admire in the Senate such as Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter, and Chuck Hagel among others. I'm worried about a Democratic super-majority in Congress that is able to pass laws that go unchallenged. However, I do believe that 57 would, most of the time, act as a majority, with a few Republicans almost always coming around and crossing the aisle. And that's assuming you get all the Democrats to agree on something.
A 60-seat, purely Democratic majority in the Senate is possible, but unlikely. First up is what I believe is the most likely pickup out of the more difficult list, and that's the race in North Carolina between incumbent Senator Liddy Dole (R) and NC State Senator Kay Hagan (D). This, along with the Franken-Coleman race in MN, are some of the dirtiest in the country. Hagan has led Dole in the most recent polls, but by slim margins of anywhere from 1-6 and as high as 9 points. I wouldn't go as far as labelling it a toss-up so much as a lean-Dem seat. Also of note: Hagan has exceeded the 50% that is very, very bad for incumbents. In a desperate attempt to take the lead, Dole has attacked her opponent as an atheist, despite her having been a Sunday school teacher. The most recent attacks and smears, however, seem to be backfiring and the race is increasingly favoring Hagan. I think we can almost call this one for her. Pickup 7 out of 9.
Another one that I mentioned is the rather infamous race, now, between incumbent Senator Norm Coleman (R) and comedian and writer Al Franken (D). The smears in this race have been numerous, as well as the number of incidents. Coleman desparately sued Franken for defamation just last week, and Franken was able to overcome a brief hubbub over some pieces he wrote for Playboy magazine. A big factor in this race is third-party candidate Dean Barkley who polls between 12-17 percentage points, making this a true toss up. With that accounted for, we're left with wild swings to the left and right in recent weeks and these days leading up to the election. The lated polls show a slight Franken lead, but are generally irrelevant when you look at the pattern of movement from one candidate to another. It could possibly be pickup 8 out of 9.
Here's where it gets difficult. Once briefly close seats, such as the Lunsford-McConnell race in Kentucky and Musgrove-Wicker in Mississippi have increasingly favoured the Republicans again, and seem to be out of Dem striking distance. The best long-shot race for the ninth pickup is in Georgia between incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) and former GA State Rep Jim Martin (D). Chambliss's approval ratings have been high, but Martin has been able to come within 2-3 points of him in these final days. However, a Libertarian candidate could send this race to a runoff. It could be pickup 9 out of 9 needed.
Final Projection:
Realistic- Six/Seven Seats
Hopeful- Eight Seats
Pushing It- Nine Seats
Personally, I think we're looking at a seven-seat pickup.
Let's look at the important races this year that could mean the tipping point of power:
Pickup 1/9
Alaska-
Post conviction polls show Begich leading over Stevens by as little as 49-42 to as much as 58-36
This race is, for the most part, over.
--
Pickup 2/9
Colorado-
Congressman Mark Udall (D) vs. Congressman Bob Schaffer (R)
Recent polls suggest a Democratic lead of 56-41 and 53-43 as recently as late October (as in October 29-30). Should there be a big turnout in favor of Obama and a last-minute swing to the Democratis, I believe that Udall could very well hit 60% or something very close. The reality, however, is that this seat is already ours.
--
Pickup 3/9
New Hampshire-
Incumbent Senator John Sununu (R) vs. former Governor of N.H. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Shaheen won three decisive gubernatorial races and currently leads Sununu by about 52-44. Recent surveys have shown some tightening, but incumbents don't often recover from those numbers, especially not the day before an election.
--
Pickup 4/9
Oregon-
Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith (R) vs. Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley (D)
Merkley is polling over 50%, and that's a deadly number for an incumbent's opponent to be at. Smith can't come back from this one. Here's some trivia: Smith is a cousin to Mark Udall, the candidate for Colorado up there, and Tom Udall, candidate for...
--
Pickup 5/9
New Mexico-
Congressman Tom Udall (D) vs. Congressman Steve Pearce
Another safe Dem seat, and the second Udall that's about to serve us in the US Senate. Udall's been up since October of last year and never once gone under 50% support.
--
Pickup 6/9
Virginia-
Former Governor Mark Warner (D) vs. Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R)
Since January Warner has polled at least 55% or higher and Gilmore at most about 35% or lower.
--
And those are the six 'easy' seats. With these, as well as Bernie Sanders and, unfortunately, Joe Lieberman, the Dems would hold a 57-seat majority in the Senate- three short from the 60 needed for a filibuster-proof majority. Now, I'll be honest with you. There are some Republican I admire in the Senate such as Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter, and Chuck Hagel among others. I'm worried about a Democratic super-majority in Congress that is able to pass laws that go unchallenged. However, I do believe that 57 would, most of the time, act as a majority, with a few Republicans almost always coming around and crossing the aisle. And that's assuming you get all the Democrats to agree on something.
A 60-seat, purely Democratic majority in the Senate is possible, but unlikely. First up is what I believe is the most likely pickup out of the more difficult list, and that's the race in North Carolina between incumbent Senator Liddy Dole (R) and NC State Senator Kay Hagan (D). This, along with the Franken-Coleman race in MN, are some of the dirtiest in the country. Hagan has led Dole in the most recent polls, but by slim margins of anywhere from 1-6 and as high as 9 points. I wouldn't go as far as labelling it a toss-up so much as a lean-Dem seat. Also of note: Hagan has exceeded the 50% that is very, very bad for incumbents. In a desperate attempt to take the lead, Dole has attacked her opponent as an atheist, despite her having been a Sunday school teacher. The most recent attacks and smears, however, seem to be backfiring and the race is increasingly favoring Hagan. I think we can almost call this one for her. Pickup 7 out of 9.
Another one that I mentioned is the rather infamous race, now, between incumbent Senator Norm Coleman (R) and comedian and writer Al Franken (D). The smears in this race have been numerous, as well as the number of incidents. Coleman desparately sued Franken for defamation just last week, and Franken was able to overcome a brief hubbub over some pieces he wrote for Playboy magazine. A big factor in this race is third-party candidate Dean Barkley who polls between 12-17 percentage points, making this a true toss up. With that accounted for, we're left with wild swings to the left and right in recent weeks and these days leading up to the election. The lated polls show a slight Franken lead, but are generally irrelevant when you look at the pattern of movement from one candidate to another. It could possibly be pickup 8 out of 9.
Here's where it gets difficult. Once briefly close seats, such as the Lunsford-McConnell race in Kentucky and Musgrove-Wicker in Mississippi have increasingly favoured the Republicans again, and seem to be out of Dem striking distance. The best long-shot race for the ninth pickup is in Georgia between incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) and former GA State Rep Jim Martin (D). Chambliss's approval ratings have been high, but Martin has been able to come within 2-3 points of him in these final days. However, a Libertarian candidate could send this race to a runoff. It could be pickup 9 out of 9 needed.
Final Projection:
Realistic- Six/Seven Seats
Hopeful- Eight Seats
Pushing It- Nine Seats
Personally, I think we're looking at a seven-seat pickup.
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